A Simple Model of Endemicity to Analyse Spread and Control of COVID-19 in India

Sourabh Banerjee; Chinmay Das; Swarniv Chandra

doi:10.34256/famr2314

Sourabh Banerjee Department of Physics, Govt. General Degree College at Kushmandi, P.O. Kalikamora, South Dinajur, Pin 733121, West Bengal, India.
Chinmay Das Department of Mathematics, Kabi Jagadram Roy Government General Degree College, Mejia, Bankura-722143, India.
Swarniv Chandra Department of Physics, Govt. General Degree College at Kushmandi, P.O. Kalikamora, South Dinajur, Pin 733121, West Bengal, India.

Keywords: COVID-19, Average Infectability, Efficacy of Containment Measures, Containment Time

Abstract

A simple model based on 2 parameters, time-dependent infectability and efficacy of containment measures, is written to analyse the spread and containment of an endemic outbreak. Data from the first wave of the outbreak of COVID-19 in India is analysed. Interestingly, growth and decay of infections can be seen as a competition between the ratio of logarithm of infectability and the logarithm of time vis-a-vis the efficacy of containment measures imposed. Containment time estimates are shown to exhibit the viability of the simple model.

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